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Pundits see folding carton production in the US—and for that matter, North America and the rest of the world—on a steady climb in 2023.

Sales volumes are ticking up, with different market watchers assigning compound annual growth rates (CAGR) that range from 1.8 percent to better than 5 percent. Forecast periods differ, with the earliest concluding this year and the latest carrying through to 2031.

Folding Carton Analysis WestRock_Paperboard-Yogurt-Container-3-e1666198839107
Chobani and Cocojune yogurt opted to move from single-use plastic containers to renewably sourced paperboard containers and with FTA member Huhtamaki, took home PPC’s Sustainability of the Year Award for 2022. Using packaging made from renewable resources supports the brand’s image of healthy food and a healthy planet.
Photo courtesy of Huhtamaki

Predictions cite differing US sales volumes. Paperboard Packaging Council (PPC) points to $13.3 billion in 2026; Freedonia Group, $12.8 billion at that time. Research and Markets echoes Freedonia’s call. Meanwhile, Smithers points to worldwide demand at $172 billion that same year. Growth is measurable considering starting points of $9.5 billion and $11.7 billion in the US, and $136.7 billion worldwide.

Consensus comes with critical impact points on business. Universal agreement indicates sustainability, e-commerce, fundamental economics, smart packaging, customer convenience and eye-catching graphic requirements are all contributing to the gradual ascent.

Here’s the rundown on what influential analysts see happening.

Strong Stature

PPC reports, “US demand for folding cartons will grow on average by 1.3 percent annually, with the market reaching 5.4 million tons by 2026. Output growth in nondurables, comprised of many carton-packaged goods, is expected to expand by 0.8 percent over the five-year forecast.”

The trade group portends, “General economic fundamentals in the US economy will remain strong throughout the coming years, with consumer spending growing by 1.8 percent from 2021-2026.” It observes, “Shipment growth will be healthiest at the end of the five-year forecast, as the current business cycle is predicted to peak.”

It continues, “The total value of US carton shipments is predicted to grow from an estimated $9.5 billion in 2021 to $13.3 billion in 2026.” Factors including changing consumer spending habits, substitution away from plastic packaging and efforts to reduce plastic waste are proving significant.

PPC holds, “Some of the largest fast-food companies and municipalities across the country seem to be providing hope that paperboard packaging materials are poised to benefit from their environmentally friendly profile. Plastic substitution and environmentally friendly packaging trends should provide a tailwind for carton growth over the forecast.”

Evidence supporting those trends can be found in the photos accompanying this article. They depict PPC’s Carton of the Year, for 2022; Sustainability Application of the Year, Innovation of the Year and Paperboard Package of the Year. All pieces were printed by FTA members.

Big Box Boon

Freedonia Group relays, “Through 2026, demand for folding cartons in the US is projected to rise 1.8 percent per year to $12.8 billion, with an uptick in real growth offset by slowing price increases.”

Analysis finds that, “Food and beverage applications will remain the largest outlet, boosted by growth in food production and increasing spending at big-box retail stores and wholesale warehouses.” Of importance, “Demand for folding cartons in the beverage market will benefit from the popularity of smaller, regional runs of beverages—most notably craft beer—and proliferation of limited, seasonal varieties of hard seltzers and premixed cocktails.”

Folding Carton Analysis Take-Smart-Fridge-Pack-7-e1666198913339
Take and Go Comercio de Bebidas Ltd, and FTA member GPI claimed PPC’s Innovation of the Year Award for 2022. GPI developed a six-bottle clip in which the bottle tops extended through the top of the package, making it easier for the Take technology (an app) to read the bottle caps and charge vending machine customers for a single bottle or complete six pack. It is printed on Klabins KlaMulti 358-gsm. board, selected for its strength, smooth print surface and 100 percent recyclability.
Photo courtesy of Graphic Packaging International

Freedonia also indicates, “The frozen food market will see relatively healthy growth, boosted by continued consumer interest in convenient trays or bowls, which frequently employ folding cartons as secondary packaging. However, further gains in this market will be limited by competition from paper sleeves for secondary packaging of frozen food.”

Sustainability = Momentum

Research and Markets mirrors Freedonia’s 2026 business volume estimate and pegs it at $12.8 billion. Its basis for growth starts at the $11.7 billion US market for 2020. “The folding carton market share in North America is expected to increase by $2.68 billion from 2020 to 2025, and the market’s growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 5 percent.”

It contends, “Through 2026, demand for folding cartons in the US is projected to rise 1.8 percent per year… Consumer interest in sustainability is boosting the use of paper folding cartons.”

According to the avid industry observer, growth will be supported by:

New Business Models

Smithers sees global demand reaching $172.0 billion in 2026 following a 4.6 percent CAGR from 2022 to 2026. It claims, “Converted carton volumes rose marginally from 48.0 million tons in 2019 to 48.3 million tons in 2020 and are forecast to rise further to 61.6 million tons in 2026.”

Elaborating on the observation, Smithers says, “Production volumes rose by just 1.6 percent in 2019-2020 and conversion volumes increased by less than 1 percent during the year. Total cartonboard production—materials sold to converters—projects out to $46.3 billion in 2021, based on latest price estimations.”

According to the Smithers statisticians, “Multiple drivers will help redefine the market proposition for cartonboard.” They include:

“Fiber-based packaging, such as folding cartons, enjoys superior green credentials over many alternative packaging materials—principally plastics,” Smithers admits. “This is increasing opportunities for cartonboard to replace or reduce the use of plastic packs in many end-use sectors. Moves happening now involve:

Addressing premium solutions, Smithers notes, “There is already increased demand for high-quality cartonboard grades used in packaging top-end lines of confectionery, premium spirits and cosmetics. A key requirement is to have grades that are optimized for the necessary decorative techniques employed for these products. These include specialized finishing techniques, such as embossing, and adding holographic films.”

Folding Carton Analysis Scottish-Leader-Moonchild-Whiskey-Limited-Edition-6-e1666202139948
PPC’s Carton of the Year Award for 2022 was captured by FTA member WestRock for Scottish Leader’s Moonchild Whiskey. A tactile reticulated varnish is applied using WestRock’s FoilKote, an inline alternative to foil stamping. Pops of gold throughout the design emphasize the nature of this premium whisky printed on WestRock’s PrintKote 405-gsm., a high-quality, coated, solid-bleached paperboard that delivers exceptional printability and a market-leading stiffness-to-weight ratio.
Photo courtesy of WestRock

Analysts immediately point to experiences contrary to the norm in this arena. “Contrasting the trend for more recycled content, premium cartonboards are generally made from virgin fibers to further enhance both the performance and aesthetics of the board—such as brightness and tactile feeling.”

E-commerce catches Smithers attention as well and prompts multiple pieces of narrative. “Cartonboard—mainly micro-flute formats—are already widely used in the booming e-commerce segment. The growth of e-commerce is now leading to the investment in stronger designs and board grades optimized to give the extra protection needed by the increased handling involved in its distribution network.

“New business models in e-commerce are opening the potential for specific cartonboard designs.” These include:

Novel Technologies

Technavio, like others, suggests the Asia/Pacific region sets the pace. Following is North America, Europe, MEA and South America, respectively.

“Growth of the folding carton market share can be attributed to factors such as the thriving e-commerce market, increase in consumption of food products, personal care and consumer goods, and a rise in use of novel technologies.”

Folding Carton Analysis Mentos-Gum-Boardio-Canister-8-e1666201775910
FTA member Graphic Packaging International captured the Paperboard Packaging Council’s (PPC) Paperboard Package of the Year for the new Boardiopaper bottle for Mentos Pure Fresh. Using a customized paperboard laminate, the package consists of more than 90 percent renewable fibers. Shipped flat, it saves up to 95 percent of storage space in transportation.
Photo courtesy of Graphic Packaging International

Analysts observe, “Folding carton market share is expected to increase by 14.41 million tons in the five years leading to 2025, and the market’s growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 5.5 percent.”

Other points of note put forth by Technavio follow. “The smart folding carton market is growing, owing to the rise in the need for sophisticated packaging in applications such as medical monitoring. Also, advances in the printed electronics technology are making the development of smart packaging economical. In addition, smart folding cartons features the advantage of enabling vendors to track the package throughout the delivery process, as they provide customers with product information using QR codes or feature individualized design and messages for customers.”

It concludes, “Incorporation of several technologies such as QR codes, NFC, RFID and embedded bar codes will help in gaining customer trust through improved experiences.”

Learn more about The Freedonia Group at freedoniagroup.com. Learn more about the Paperboard Packaging Council at paperbox.org. Learn more about Research and Markets at researchandmarkets.com. Learn more about Smithers at smithers.com. Learn more about Technavio at technavio.com.